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Is Chile entering a period of mass incarceration? An overview of the evolution of prisons under Gabriel Boric's administration

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Abstract

This article examines the sharp increase in incarceration in Chile during the 2022–2024 period. Drawing on the theoretical framework of mass incarceration, we reflect on the features that may indicate the beginning of such a cycle in the country. Although this phenomenon appears to have been incubating for several years, it is from 2022 onward that a sustained rise in the incarceration rate is recorded, reaching 290 people deprived of liberty per 100,000 inhabitants in 2024—approaching the levels observed in 2010. Accordingly, the prison population in closed regimes rose from 38,977 people at the end of 2021 to 58,310 in 2024, marking a 49.6% increase over the past three years. Notable growth is observed among individuals held in pretrial detention (31.6%), incarcerated women (52.3%), and foreign nationals, who increased by 67.8% between 2022 and 2024. We conclude that, given the prevailing political discourse and security-oriented context, and in the absence of substantial policy interventions, a short-term decrease in incarceration levels in Chile is unlikely, and no straightforward public policy solution is currently in sight.

Keywords:

Mass incarceration , prison overcrowding , prison system , tough-on-crime policy

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