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Los factores domésticos en la supervivencia de los ministros de Relaciones Exteriores en América Latina (1945-2020)

Autores/as

  • Pedro Feliú Ribeiro Universidad de San Pablo
  • Camilo López Burian Universidad de la República - UdelaR

Resumen

Este trabajo aborda la incidencia de factores de política doméstica en la supervivencia ministerial en la cartera de Relaciones Exteriores de América Latina en el período 1945-2020. Utilizamos una base de datos propia que abarca siete países (Argentina, Brasil, Chile, México, Paraguay, Perú y Uruguay), 289 ministros y ministras de Relaciones Exteriores. Mediante curvas de Kaplan-Meier ilustramos la supervivencia ministerial, comparando entre países, y con un modelo de regresión de Cox encontramos como factores de supervivencia: el aumento del PIB per cápita del país, el poder legislativo del presidente, y la pertenencia al grupo político del presidente. Contrariamente a lo que podríamos esperar a partir de la literatura, como factor de riesgo encontramos la experiencia política previa. A partir de estudiar un caso en el gobierno uruguayo (2005-2010) realizamos un análisis de cómo operan estos factores sobre la supervivencia ministerial.

Palabras clave:

Política Exterior, América Latina, Factores Domésticos, Supervivencia Ministerial.

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